The Monday Freight Brief Freight costs rise. Demand tells a different story. post

Good morning,
Freight pricing and customer demand are giving businesses different things to think about this week.
Ocean benchmarks have risen again. Airfreight reporting points to a recovery after the Asian holidays. Meanwhile, UK retail figures and manufacturers’ responses suggest purchasing plans still need careful handling.
There are also new aerospace and defence developments, additional freighter options and an announcement on selected import tariff suspensions.
Here’s what matters.
This week in three lines
🚢 Ocean: Asia-Europe benchmarks rise again, while sailing schedules need checking.
✈️ Air: Post-holiday volumes recover, with additional European and US freighter options announced.
🏭 Business: Mixed demand signals put stock priorities, confirmed orders and shipment timing in focus.
The lead story
Asia-Europe ocean rates rise for a second week
Drewry’s 22 October assessment reported another increase in Asia-Europe container rates:
Shanghai to Rotterdam: $3,632 per 40ft container, up 3%.
Shanghai to Genoa: $4,152 per 40ft container, up 5%.
Its composite World Container Index rose 2% to $4,585 per 40ft container.
Why it matters
For importers with cargo ready, reconfirm the price against the intended departure.
Ask how long the offer remains valid, which charges are included and whether the supplier can meet the cut-off.
For goods with flexible delivery dates, compare alternatives before committing. For essential stock, assess the cost of a delay alongside any freight saving.
Two weeks of increases are worth watching, but they do not establish where rates will go next. These benchmarks also exclude some elements of a complete UK delivery and do not guarantee space.
Source: Drewry World Container Index, 22 October⁠�
Ocean freight watch 🚢
Forward schedules still need checking
Drewry’s 23 October tracker reported 56 expected blank sailings across 714 planned East-West departures, covering weeks 44 to 48.
That represents an 8% cancellation rate.
Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean services accounted for 54% of the cancellations. This does not mean that 54% of departures on those trades are cancelled.
Why it matters
Check the actual service attached to a quotation, particularly for seasonal stock, automotive components and manufacturing inputs.
A replacement sailing might be available, but the arrival date, transhipment arrangement or UK delivery plan could change.
For food and drink, include remaining shelf life and the consignee’s receiving window in that comparison.
The practical question is straightforward: if this departure changes, does the alternative still work?
Source: Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker, 23 October⁠�
Rotterdam weather prompts a connection check
The Port of Rotterdam issued an all-vessel pilot-service amendment on 23 October, citing waves of approximately 3.2 metres.
The notice does not establish a complete port closure or a delay to every vessel. Weather restrictions can also change quickly.
Why it matters
For UK cargo transhipping through Rotterdam, check the latest vessel arrival and feeder arrangements before confirming delivery.
Urgent components, retail stock and refrigerated cargo are particularly sensitive to a missed connection. Use the current carrier position rather than assuming Friday’s conditions still apply.
Source: Port of Rotterdam notice, 23 October⁠�
Airfreight watch ✈️
Post-holiday volumes begin to recover
A 26 October report from Cargo Airports & Airline Services, citing WorldACD, says global air cargo volumes rose 2% in the third week of October as Asian exports recovered following Golden Week.
It also reports single-digit rate increases from most origins on routes to Europe.
Why it matters
For urgent manufacturing components and retail replenishment, obtain a fresh shipment-specific offer when the goods are ready.
For pharmaceuticals and healthcare products, the comparison also needs to cover cargo acceptance, temperature requirements, transfer arrangements and the final delivery deadline.
A global recovery does not establish that every UK lane is full. Equally, an available first flight does not confirm the onward connection.
These are historical market observations reported by CAAS, rather than live booking availability.
Source: CAAS reporting WorldACD, 26 October⁠�
Additional European and US freighter options announced
A Qatar Airways Cargo announcement, published by TIACA on 22 October, schedules a weekly Warsaw–Chicago freighter from 26 October.
It also includes a weekly Liège–JFK–Atlanta–Liège service from 1 November, alongside additional Dallas freighters.
Why it matters
Continental gateways may provide alternatives for aerospace, healthcare and industrial shipments.
These are not new direct UK services. Before choosing a routing, confirm UK feeder arrangements, cargo acceptance, handling and the complete collection-to-delivery transit time.
Additional network capacity does not automatically mean a lower UK shipment price.
Source: Qatar Airways Cargo announcement via TIACA, 22 October⁠�
Sector spotlight
Retail, food and drink: a softer month within a stronger quarter
ONS figures published on 23 October showed Great Britain’s retail sales volumes falling 0.4% in September, following a revised 0.7% increase in August.
Across the third quarter, volumes rose 0.7% compared with the previous quarter.
Online clothing retailers reported that warm weather affected autumn and winter ranges. Supermarket sales also fell in September after growth in July and August.
Why it matters for freight
Review replenishment by product rather than treating the whole stock plan alike.
Some lines may need urgent movement. Others may justify a later departure or a different shipment size.
For food and drink, check stock cover and shelf life before changing shipment timing.
Retail sales measure goods bought by consumers. They do not translate directly into the same percentage change in imports.
Source: ONS, Retail sales: September 2026⁠�
Manufacturing: stabilisation expected, but orders remain under pressure
The CBI’s 22 October Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturers expect output to be broadly stable over the next three months.
However, respondents reported falling domestic and export orders, continuing cost pressure and weak investment intentions. The survey covered 263 manufacturing firms.
Why it matters for freight
A customer expecting steadier production may still be cautious about purchasing and inventory.
Ask which orders are confirmed, when materials are required and whether suppliers have changed lead times.
For engineering, chemicals and industrial businesses, those details are more useful for planning freight than assuming a general recovery.
These are survey findings and expectations, separate from official production statistics.
Source: CBI Industrial Trends Survey, 22 October⁠�
Aerospace and defence: programme and production milestones
Lockheed Martin announced an F-35 production and sustainment framework on 22 October, including 850 US aircraft over ten years, alongside initial spares, modification kits and sustainment.
Separately, the MOD announced the start of production at Rheinmetall’s Telford gun hall, manufacturing barrels and breeches for large-calibre systems.
Why it matters for freight
These developments provide reasons to revisit confirmed schedules with existing aerospace and defence suppliers.
The useful questions concern purchase orders, tooling, maintenance requirements and international component movements.
A framework agreement does not give every supplier a firm delivery schedule. A factory opening does not establish an open logistics tender.
For controlled goods, classification, permissions and transport arrangements need to be established before dispatch.
Sources: Lockheed Martin, 22 October⁠� · MOD, 22 October⁠�
Defence vehicles: seven bidders move into tender and trials
DE&S published a shortlist on 21 October for the next stage of the Army’s Light Mobility Vehicle competition.
The seven bidders are Babcock, General Dynamics Land Systems UK, Ineos Automotive, Iturri, Jaguar Land Rover, NP Aerospace and Rheinmetall Defence UK.
The next stage combines formal tendering with trials involving 21 vehicles. An initial purchase of approximately 3,000 vehicles is envisaged, with deliveries anticipated from 2027.
Why it matters for freight
The nearer-term questions concern trial vehicles, supporting equipment and components.
Suppliers should establish movement dates, overseas origins and who controls the transport arrangements. No competition winner or freight award has been announced.
Source: DE&S announcement, 21 October⁠�
Naval supply chains: work begins on a new logistics hub
Babcock announced ground-breaking at Sherford on 23 October for an Integrated Logistics Hub supporting Devonport.
The project is intended to consolidate more than 30 logistics locations, with the site able to accommodate a 30,000-square-metre facility supporting submarine maintenance.
Why it matters for freight
Marine engineering and maintenance suppliers may eventually face different delivery locations and receiving arrangements.
For now, the useful questions concern the transition timetable and when suppliers will receive updated instructions. The announcement does not confirm an operational opening date or an available forwarding tender.
Source: Babcock announcement, 23 October⁠�
Regulation and customs
Selected import tariff suspensions to be extended
The government announced on 23 October that tariff suspensions on more than 250 goods, due to expire on 31 December, will be extended until December 2028.
It also announced a six-month extension, to December 2027, for suspensions otherwise due to expire in June 2027.
The announcement identifies sectors including chemicals, plastics, automotive, and food and drink.
Why it matters
Importers using a suspension should review the commodity code, product description, conditions and applicable dates with their customs team.
This concerns selected goods. It does not remove duty across an entire sector or remove other import obligations.
For purchasing teams, the benefit is greater certainty where a measure applies. Confirm the relevant tariff entry before building that assumption into a landed-cost calculation.
Source: HM Treasury, 23 October⁠�
Market pulse
🚢 Asia-Europe ocean: Benchmarks rise again. Reconfirm quote validity and the intended departure.
📅 Sailing schedules: Blank sailings remain in forward plans. Check the alternative arrival date.
🌊 Rotterdam connections: A weather-related pilot-service amendment warrants a current vessel and feeder check.
✈️ Airfreight: Post-holiday recovery is reported. Confirm the current offer and onward uplift.
🛒 Retail and food: Monthly and quarterly demand differ. Review replenishment by product.
🏭 Manufacturing: Stabilisation is expected, but orders remain pressured. Work from confirmed production requirements.
🔧 Aerospace and defence: New milestones give suppliers reasons to review schedules. Establish actual purchasing and movement commitments.
📋 Import tariffs: Selected suspensions are set for extension. Check the commodity code and conditions.
Commercial implications are editorial analysis. Market indicators are not freight quotations or guarantees of availability.
A note from Jack
The most useful conversation this week might start with the stock list.
Which goods need to arrive first? Which can wait? And has anything changed since the original order was placed?
With ocean benchmarks rising and demand looking mixed, those answers matter. They help businesses decide where to spend on speed and where there is room to be flexible.
Before the next shipment leaves, check the price, the route and the delivery priority still match the plan.
From my Etsy shop
I’ve put together practical templates covering prospecting, call planning and freight terminology.
You can find them in my BDMToolkit shop⁠�.
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Jack Fitzmaurice
Founder, The Monday Freight Brief
[email protected]
The views expressed are my own and do not represent my employer. This publication uses publicly available information for general industry insight and should not be treated as legal, regulatory or financial advice.