Monday, 19 October 2026 | Issue #10 | Five-minute read
Good morning,
After weeks of falling Asia-Europe ocean rates, the latest benchmarks have turned upwards.
That gives importers something new to consider, but one weekly increase does not settle where prices go next.
This week also brings fresh airfreight figures, investment in aircraft-engine maintenance at Prestwick, stronger monthly UK manufacturing output and an immediate deadline for Trader Support Service users.
Here’s what matters.
This week in three lines
🚢 Ocean: Asia-Europe rates rise after 13 consecutive weekly declines.
✈️ Air: Global prices hold steady despite another holiday-related dip in volumes.
🏭 Business: Aerospace investment and manufacturing figures offer useful signals, while TSS users need to be ready for tomorrow.
The lead story
Asia-Europe ocean rates break their downward run
Drewry’s 15 October assessment reported the first increase in Asia-Europe rates after 13 consecutive weeks of decline.
Route | Rate per 40ft container | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
Shanghai to Rotterdam | $3,522 | Up 6% |
Shanghai to Genoa | $3,945 | Up 7% |
Carriers were also seeking higher freight-all-kinds tariffs from 19 October, but Drewry said successful implementation remained uncertain.
Why it matters
For importers with goods ready to move, check whether last week’s quotation is still valid and which departure it covers.
An announced tariff increase and a confirmed booking price are different things. Ask for the actual offer, including its validity and applicable charges.
One stronger week is worth watching, but it is not enough to assume a sustained upward trend.
Ocean freight watch 🚢
Blank sailings still need a booking-level check
Drewry’s 16 October cancelled-sailings tracker identified 44 cancellations across 713 planned East-West sailings between 19 October and 22 November.
That represents a 6% cancellation rate. Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean services accounted for 44% of the announced cancellations.
These figures cover a five-week window across several trades. They do not mean 44% of Asia-Europe departures are cancelled.
Why it matters
For retail replenishment, manufacturing inputs and seasonal stock, establish whether the intended departure is operating before relying on the arrival date.
Ask which alternative service is available if the sailing changes, and whether it still meets the required delivery window.
The headline cancellation percentage is useful context. The individual booking determines the practical impact.
Airfreight watch ✈️
Rates hold steady as holiday effects reduce volumes
WorldACD figures reported by Asian Aviation on 19 October, covering week 41, 5–11 October, showed:
Measure | Latest position |
|---|---|
Global tonnage | Down 1% week on week |
Global tonnage versus last year | Up 9% |
Average global spot rate | Unchanged at $3.55/kg |
Average combined spot and contract rate | Unchanged at $3.13/kg |
The report linked the volume decline mainly to holidays in China and elsewhere in East Asia. Global capacity also fell 1% week on week.
Why it matters
Lower volumes have not translated into lower global average prices.
For urgent components, healthcare products and replenishment shipments, request a rate against the actual origin, destination, cargo requirements and deadline.
These are global historical averages, not UK route quotations. Temperature-controlled handling and confirmed uplift still need to be checked separately.
Sector spotlight
Aerospace: GE commits £30 million to Prestwick expansion
GE Aerospace announced on 12 October that it will invest £30 million to expand and modernise its aircraft-engine maintenance, repair and overhaul site at Prestwick.
The plans include a new 55,000 sq ft building, with full operations targeted for the first quarter of 2028.
GE also plans to recruit around 150 workers over five years. These are future plans rather than completed capacity additions.
Why it matters for freight
Facility expansion can create requirements for machinery, tooling and specialist equipment before increased maintenance activity generates recurring movements.
For existing suppliers and engineering businesses, the useful questions concern confirmed purchasing dates, overseas sourcing and repair schedules.
The announcement does not identify an open freight tender. Any opportunity needs qualifying against the actual project and supplier appointments.
Source: GE Aerospace, 12 October
Manufacturing: stronger August output, modest underlying growth
ONS figures published on 15 October showed UK manufacturing output rising 1.2% in August, with growth in nine of the 13 subsectors.
Pharmaceutical manufacturing increased 5.1%, providing the largest positive monthly contribution. Transport-equipment manufacturing grew 1.8%.
However, manufacturing output increased only 0.1% across the three months to August, compared with the preceding three months.
Why it matters for freight
The figures provide a useful reason to revisit production and purchasing plans with pharmaceutical, engineering and industrial customers.
They do not establish an equivalent increase in imports, exports or freight demand.
Check whether individual businesses have changed their order books, stock requirements or overseas component schedules. The stronger monthly result needs to be read alongside the more modest three-month picture.
Regulation and customs
TSS: new movements switch to the new service tomorrow
HMRC’s guidance, updated on 14 October, confirms that all new movements submitted through the Trader Support Service must use the new service from 20 October.
Businesses already registered with the outgoing service before 14 October will be migrated and do not need to register again. HMRC says migration will take place on or before 20 October.
Why it matters
This is the deadline flagged in an earlier edition, now supported by updated registration and sign-in guidance.
For businesses using TSS for Northern Ireland movements, today is the time to check:
The person submitting declarations can access the new service.
The right users have access to the business account.
The team knows which service to use for tomorrow’s new movements.
Any unresolved migration issue has been raised with TSS support.
Confirm access before the next movement needs submitting.
Sources: HMRC migration guidance · New TSS service
Market pulse
Area | Latest signal | What to check |
|---|---|---|
Asia-Europe ocean | Weekly benchmarks rise | Quote validity and confirmed departure |
Sailing schedules | Cancellations remain in forward plans | Alternative service and delivery window |
Airfreight | Global prices steady despite lower volumes | Shipment-specific rate and uplift |
Aerospace | Prestwick expansion announced | Equipment purchasing and supplier schedules |
Manufacturing | Stronger month, modest three-month growth | Actual orders and overseas sourcing |
Northern Ireland movements | TSS deadline on 20 October | Account access and declaration responsibility |
Commercial implications are editorial analysis. Market indicators are not freight quotations or guarantees of availability.
A note from Jack
After several weeks of falling ocean rates, it would be easy to assume the next quote would be cheaper again.
This week is a reminder to keep checking that assumption.
For me, the useful questions are straightforward: is the quote still valid, does the sailing work, and is everything ready for the goods to move?
And if your business uses TSS, check access today. Tomorrow is a poor time to discover a login problem.
From my Etsy shop
I’ve put together practical templates covering prospecting, call planning and freight terminology.
You can find them in my Etsy shop: BDMToolkit.
If you found this brief useful, please forward it to a colleague.
Jack Fitzmaurice
Founder, The Monday Freight Brief
[email protected]
The views expressed are my own and do not represent my employer. This publication uses publicly available information for general industry insight and should not be treated as legal, regulatory or financial advice.